Saturday June 4, 2022
Storms watch over the West and the center?
The freshness would return as expected in the last update (from June 3 to 12, 2022).
Low pressures would dominate the country, modeled by a depression called JASA, which would tend to strengthen over Brittany and Normandy.
The main consequence would be an accentuation of the air mass conflict between the warm thrust and the semi-oceanic component (fresh cold); thus, the risk of thunderstorms would be generalized to two-thirds of the country with probably vigilance in the South-West, the Massif Central at the end of the day after a very hot day.
In this sector, storms could be violent in terms of hail, accumulation of water and electrical activity; however, the risk of a storm under the squalls would be marginal.
Going towards the Mediterranean rim, the weather would be calmer apart from the passage of a squall line at the start of the day which should affect the Var, the Alpes Maritimes and Corsica.
Temperatures would be warm overall for a month of June compared to seasonal norms for the period 1981-2010
15C Rouen and Clermont Ferrand (Puy de Dome).
16C Metz and Pau.
25C La Rochelle.
After the success of our special page on potential weather at Hellfest in 2019, we have made another one for the 2022 edition. on https://www.meteolafleche.com/Previsions/2022/meteo_hellfest.html
Find our file on the weather since the creation of the festival in 2006 on http://www.meteolafleche.com/Dossiers/meteo_hellfest_depuis_2006.html
Sunday June 5, 2022
Storms still watch over the Northeast?
The JASNA low would move up towards the British Isles to merge with a newly created low pressure system: the flow would then switch to the South-West favoring the progression of oceanic air.
However, further east, the heat would still resist; the air mass conflict generated would take the form of potentially strong thunderstorms in terms of electrical activity, gusts of wind (locally stormy?) or even precipitation (hail?)!
In the South and West, the risk of showers would decrease on the sidelines of a temporary high pressure.
As for the Mediterranean rim, apart from a few showers at the start of the day in Corsica, the weather would be summery.
Monday, June 6, 2022
A new disturbance would arrive in an oceanic flow but remaining from the South-West sector.
Consequently, if the showers would be very present, the feeling would generally remain summery except on the Channel coasts.
Medium term weather
: from 4 to 6 days
Tuesday, June 7, 2022
The westerly current would remain active but the pressure field would rise from the south during the evening; in the meantime, the showers would be more numerous and the temperatures a little fair for the season.
Wednesday June 8, 2022
The high pressures would return more on the country with a ridge extending from Spain to Scandinavia.
Thus, night clearings would be more present except in the North-East with falling minimum temperatures.
During the day, with the flow heading south, the maximums would be sharply higher.
Thursday, June 9, 2022
The anticyclone would gradually shift towards central Europe, strengthening the southerly flow which could switch to South-East-South; hot air advection would then be intense over the Great West with average temperatures rising by a few degrees.
From D+7 D+16: long-term weather trend between 7 and 16 days
From Friday 10 to Tuesday 14 June 2022
A new stormy offensive would be possible during the weekend preceding the start of Hellfest; a brief ocean current would occur at the start of the following week, as would the freshness.
The maximum temperatures would evolve in this way at the end of the period:
Reliability of the long-term forecast
US GFS forecast model: 65%.
European weather model CEP: 65%.
From Wednesday 15 to Sunday 19 June 2022
The pressure field would push back from the south releasing the main showers; the risk of precipitation would then appear low or even non-existent for the first edition of Hellfest; on the other hand, for the second edition, nothing very encouraging…for the moment.
The maximum temperatures would be generally quite warm compared to seasonal norms (1981-2010):
23C at Mont Saint Michel (Manche).
27C Maisons-Alfort (Ile de France) and Our Lady of the Landes (Loire Atlantique).
28C Nevers (Nivre), Colmar (Haut Rhin) and Antibes (Alpes Maritimes).
29C Toulouse Blagnac (Haute Garonne) and Saint-Martin d’Hres (Isre).
31C Figari (South Corsica).
Two-Week Trend Relevance
The ensemble model ENS 00h (in 60% of the scenarios) as well as GEFS would highlight a western component over the country.
Meteorological indices in connection with the Ocans
AO (Arctic Oscillation): positive.
There could then be a depressionary system from Greenland to Scandinavia via the United Kingdom.
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation): positive.
The pressure anomalies would be negative over Western Europe (North-West France in particular), positive around the Mediterranean and the Bay of Biscay.